Contributing Author: Sean Lyons
An in-depth analysis of the private student housing market at University of North Carolina conducted by Triad Real Estate Partners. Triad Real Estate Partners concentrates in private student housing and multi-family real estate brokerage. Triad Real Estate Partners’ research team compiles in-depth student housing market research reports on leading Universities in the United States.
Total Enrollment: DOWN 0.86%
Fall 2018 saw Florida State’s total enrollment decline for the third time in the past four years, although none of the decreases accounted for more than 1% of FSU’s roughly 41,000 students. Between 2000 and 2010, enrollment at FSU grew from 33,951 to 40,416 – an increase of 19.04%. The subsequent eight fall semesters have been essentially stagnant. Since fall 2011 total enrollment has oscillated, though always landed between 40,600 and 41,400.
Freshman Enrollment: DOWN 6.34%
True freshman enrollment dropped to 6,029, more than 400 students less than fall 2017’s all-time high of 6,437. The first-time freshman enrollment drop is a little head-scratching, considering that the University received over 50,000 applications (42.39% more than the previous, record-breaking year), and admitted 18,505 prospective students (6.46% more than the year prior). Given the mercurial nature of freshman enrollment – not to mention teenagers as a whole – it is likely, though by no means certain, that first-year enrollment will swing back above 6,500 next fall.
International Enrollment: DOWN 3.00%
International student enrollment declined for the second consecutive year, almost exactly matching last fall’s decline of 2.99%. The 2,232 international students on campus in Talllahassee comprise just 5.44% of the overall student body.
2018-2019 Occupancy: DOWN 4.62%
Average market occupancy – which has remained healthy over the past few years, despite the addition of over 7,000 of new beds – fell sharply to 91.53% for the 2018-19 AY. With another 4,000 private beds already approved or under construction coming down pipeline over the next two leasing cycles, expect market-wide student housing occupancy levels in Tallahassee to hover around 90% for the next several years.
Average Rents: UP 5.26%
Average asking rents increased across all unit types, thanks mostly to the addition of a number of new developments, each commanding rents in excess of $2.00/sf. An apples-to-apples comparison yielded a more moderate average rent increase of 1.66%. Asking rents for One bedroom units were up 4.49%, and now rent for an average of $1,052 per-month.
Market Additions – Fall 2018: 2,707 Beds
Private student housing developers contributed 2,707 new beds to the Tallahassee market in fall 2018. The additions were spread across five developments.
Cincinnati-based North American Properties was responsible for two of the newcomers – Stadium Enclave (600 beds) and another phase at the Stadium Center cluster, The Edge (424 beds). Another Ohio-based firm, Columbus’ The Edwards Companies, completed the 752-bed Quantum on West Call, which was the largest new development to hit the market since fall 2014. EdR/Greystar also completed their massive redevelopment project of Players Club, returning another 592 beds to the market. Finally, College Town-Madison Street added a third phase – the complex’s largest-to-date with 339 beds, bring the total there to 673 beds.
Expected Market Additions – Fall 2019 & Beyond: 4,243+/- beds
Fall 2019 is shaping up to be a challenging one for private student housing operators in Tallahassee, as another deluge – this time “only” 1,693 beds of fresh inventory across three new developments – is set to rain down on the market. The biggest splash will be made by student housing mainstay Landmark Properties, with completion of the 915-bed Standard at Tallahassee. Tampa-based 908 Development Group is slated to add 438 beds in the first of two proposed phases of their project, Nine at Tallahassee.
Although it is still a little too early to make bold predictions, the forecast for fall 2020 is likely to coincide with another monsoon of student housing deliveries, as an additional four projects totaling 2,550 beds are likely to come flooding into the market. Lafayette, Indiana-based developers Trinitas Ventures are expected to break ground next month on their 730-bed project on the 300-block of West Tennessee. There are two developments currently under construction on consecutive blocks of West Pensacola – Haven Campus Communities’ development (702 beds) on the 1700 block and The Lab in Tallahassee (601 beds) on the 1800 block. Finally, Wilmington, NC-based Zimmer Development Company is currently building Mosley Place, which will be located on Mosley Street in the Collegetown neighborhood and contain 517 beds. All four of the aforementioned projects are expected to wrap construction in time for the 2020-21 AY.
Sean Lyons | Partner
slyons@triadrepartners.com
Triad Real Estate Partners
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